THE LABOUR Party, Peter Obi, and his supporters hold one conviction: that the former governor of Anambra State won the 2023 election. INEC, the official umpire, said otherwise. So, Obi and his party did what a civilised polity demands. They went to court. They did not take the law into their own hands. That distinction matters. If they had chosen violence, no civilised person would stand with them. You cannot burn down the house you want to live in, let alone govern.
Nigeria is bigger than any man, any tribe, any faith, any party. No one holds a birthright to power. In a democracy, power is borrowed through the ballot. It is the job of politicians to go around, make their case, and earn it.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo wrote in his book that he realised Chief Awolowo was a good presidential material but could not win a national election because he lacked friends in the North. To solve that problem, Obasanjo made Awolowo Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University, hoping he would use the role to build northern friendships. He did not. Obasanjo understood, even before Abiola, that regional politics alone cannot deliver national goals.
For an incumbent, the job should be simpler: show what you have done in office, and let that speak for you. But when an incumbent has failed woefully, fear and blackmail cannot substitute for votes. We are a civilised society. We should act like one.
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Chief MKO Abiola, of blessed memory, was one of the first Yoruba politicians to realise that regional politics alone cannot secure national office. In his business career, he built friendships across the country. That is why his victory in the 1993 election was decisive – his votes came from every region. Even in Igboland, where Dr. Ugo was Bashir Tofa’s running mate, Abiola won convincingly.
It was encouraging to see Bola Ahmed Tinubu move beyond the South-West to build political links in the North and forge new friendships, acknowledging that South-West votes alone cannot win the presidency. He did fairly well and made enough friends to support his ambition in 2023.
Between 2023 and now, what has happened to those northern friends? Establishing relationships is not enough; relationships are not souvenirs. If you do not tend to them, if you do not keep them oiled, they rust.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo wrote in his book that he realised Chief Awolowo was a good presidential material but could not win a national election because he lacked friends in the North. To solve that problem, Obasanjo made Awolowo Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University, hoping he would use the role to build northern friendships. He did not. Obasanjo understood, even before Abiola, that regional politics alone cannot deliver national goals.
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If Tinubu is having a face-off with his political associates in the North, he should go back and mend it. In politics, there are no permanent enemies; what is permanent is interest. If he loses the 2027 election, it should be on the grounds of poor performance in his first term and his inability to maintain his political alliances
In 1999 and 2003, the Igbos voted overwhelmingly for Olusegun Obasanjo – even with Emeka Ojukwu, their own son, on the ballot. That is rare in Nigerian politics. Most votes follow tribe. The Igbo vote has often followed conviction instead. The records are there.
When Peter Obi beat Bola Tinubu in Igboland in 2023, it wasn’t tribe talking. It was judgment. The Igbos believed Obi stood taller – in integrity, in record, in capacity. Igbos back honest men. Peter Obi fits that bill.
To seek re-election without having shown capacity in the first term is not ambition. It is an insult to the people. Blackmail does not win votes. It only reveals fear. Igbos who support Tinubu will vote for Tinubu. Igbos in the PDP, ADC, NDC, and other parties will vote for their parties. People vote their convictions, not their ethnicity.
To say that if Igbos join the North to vote out Tinubu, they become enemies of the Yorubas, is lazy politics and dishonest history. It assumes a monolith where none exists.
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First, it is not possible for all Igbos to vote against Tinubu. The South-East has five states. Three are under APC control. Soludo of APGA has already declared for Tinubu. Otti, we perceive is still playing hide-and-seek with him.
In truth, every governor in the East has found a way to align with Tinubu. So, the idea that a vote against him equals ethnic betrayal collapses under its own weight.
If Tinubu loses in 2027, it will not be because of betrayal. It will be because of performance.
Tinubu has never built his politics on the Igbo vote. His strongholds have always been the South-West, and recently, the North and South-South. So, the question is not whether he can win there again. It is whether he has earned it this time.
In the South-South, Wike and Asari Dokubo remain aligned with him. He is unlikely to lose that ground. And in Jos and Benue, the people he visited in grief may remember that gesture at the ballot box. You do not win a second term on promises.
You win a first term on promises. You earn a second term on performance.
To seek re-election without having shown capacity in the first term is not ambition. It is an insult to the people. Blackmail does not win votes. It only reveals fear. Igbos who support Tinubu will vote for Tinubu. Igbos in the PDP, ADC, NDC, and other parties will vote for their parties. People vote their convictions, not their ethnicity.
