2027 SEEMS oxymoronic to Nigerians, which is both near and far due to the fixations with the general election in the year.
President Tinubu is majorly culpable for drawing the year quite nearer. The regime’s subsidy withdrawal was a God-sent platform to the opposition politicians; whilst his administration was barely in its 9th month, 39 months to the toll of its death knell, when President Tinubu brought the distant year nearer. And not to be outdone, Messrs Abubakar and Obi picked up the gauntlet; and began a head on oppositional collision with his governance template knocking him here and there, warming up for 2027.
Save for any eventuality, APC’s presidential ticket in 2027 is settled. But the case of PDP is different. Who would clinch its presidential ticket depends on the interplay of diverse interests within the party and without. Would it be Mr Atiku Abubakar, its major contender? Or Mr Peter Obi, if he stages a come back to the party? Or Nyesome Wike, who messed Mr Abubakar’s chances in the last election? Or Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, who rejected the olive branch offered by concerned members of the party to increase northern clout during the last primaries? Or an unknown dark horse?
With his cup filled to the brim, as he was reminded by the NLC president, Joe Ajaero, with whom he joined issues; it is baffling for a president in dire governance straits to develop an early obsession with an election three years away. Instead of being preoccupied with how to manage an economy gone haywire; how to shed the tears of terror and poverty-stricken Nigerians by putting food on their tables; and effectively securing their lives.
Piqued by the NLC’s recent nationwide protests on the failure of his regime to fulfil its agreements with Nigerian workers, to cushion the hardships occasioned by the withdrawal of fuel subsidy in May 2023; President Tinubu challenged the Congress to meet him in 2027, which so early brought the 2027 presidential election for discussion in the country.
With the mudslinging campaigns in the last election, which is still fresh in the memories of those whose political psyches were bruised; reinforced by the judicial shocks of the elections underscore the politicians’ eagerness for 2027; which has unconsciously been drawn nearer.
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Since by tradition any incumbent president’s party is his lapdog; at his imperial beck and call, which must do his bidding, President Tinubu requires no effort to be offered the right of first refusal for the APC ticket in 2027. And like the elderly presidents before him, who refused to be a Mandela in Nigeria, his body language does not indicate he wishes to be one; and with his political gaze on second term, only providence could prevent him from contesting in 2027.
What are the prospects of Mr Abubakar clinching the party’s ticket in 2027? Despite having a deep war chest, and a formidable political machine, he might not easily clinch the party’s presidential ticket. First, having serially contested and lost in 2019 and 2023, he could be opposed by a flank of the party which could raise the spectre of Northern domination; and appeal for inclusive change in the party, should he indicate an interest in 2027. His recent disclosure that should the presidential ticket of the party be zoned to the South, he would support whoever emerges as its candidate, indicates that as a functional democrat, Mr Abubakar doesn’t regard the ticket of the party in 2027 as a matter of life and death.
Like President Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a serial candidate and technical loser in preceding presidential elections should understandably have a fixation with 2027, as it could be his major headache; as the Obidients’ obsession with it could be excused due to their belief that they were judicially robbed of victory in 2023.
The eagle-eyed opposition of Mr Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi who knock the regime on its governance template which include the crude repayment loan of $3.3 billion with a repayable amount of $12 billion; and the contract for the construction of Lagos-Calabar coastal highway to an alleged business associate of someone linked to the first family among others, which keep the regime on its toes, are symptomatic of the eagerness for 2027, and the crave for its nearness, which underscore how ferocious the next presidential campaigns would be.
With the recent mutual visits among opposition politicians, especially those of Mr Peter Obi to Atiku Abubakar and Sule Lamido, a twosome remnant of the founding fathers of the PDP underscore either the belated realisation by the opposition candidates of the futility of separately engaging a ruling party in Nigerian elections, with a likely gang up against the APC in 2027. Or the realisation by Peter Obi of the monumental mismatch between him and the Labour Party, which makes him a square capitalist in a round left-leaning party, which underscores its ideological incongruence and inadequacy for his presidential project, which makes him desperate for a bigger vehicle, which signposts his hobnobbing with the PDP top shots. Eventually, prodigal Obi may return to the party he jettisoned for the Labour Party.
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Save for any eventuality, APC’s presidential ticket in 2027 is settled. But the case of PDP is different. Who would clinch its presidential ticket depends on the interplay of diverse interests within the party and without. Would it be Mr Atiku Abubakar, its major contender? Or Mr Peter Obi, if he stages a come back to the party? Or Nyesome Wike, who messed Mr Abubakar’s chances in the last election? Or Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, who rejected the olive branch offered by concerned members of the party to increase northern clout during the last primaries? Or an unknown dark horse?
What are the prospects of Mr Abubakar clinching the party’s ticket in 2027? Despite having a deep war chest, and a formidable political machine, he might not easily clinch the party’s presidential ticket. First, having serially contested and lost in 2019 and 2023, he could be opposed by a flank of the party which could raise the spectre of Northern domination; and appeal for inclusive change in the party, should he indicate an interest in 2027. His recent disclosure that should the presidential ticket of the party be zoned to the South, he would support whoever emerges as its candidate, indicates that as a functional democrat, Mr Abubakar doesn’t regard the ticket of the party in 2027 as a matter of life and death.
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Secondly, the Wike factor is a formidable challenge to his prospects, as it was in the last election. Wike, a fourth republic minted politician, whose political tutelage began at the lowest level, who came second in his first presidential outing in 2023; whose mastery of political chicanery is prodigious, who is alleged to have disproportionately helped to foist and disbanded the Modu Sheriff, Makarfi, and Secondus regimes in the party; and was highly instrumental in cementing the Ayu leadership; as he highly aided its downfall, could be disastrous to Mr Abubakar, because of his tight grip in the party.
The Labour Party, which performed impressively in the last election, is engulfed in an ownership tussle with the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), and the obidients. One might ask: where were the labour oligarchs when the obidients overran the party in 2019? Without the obidients, can the NLC politically project the party to any height in Nigeria? If they could, why didn’t they make any attempt before the coming of the obidients? Should Peter Obi exit the party, he would leave with the obidients; and the party would be as hollow, and almost lifeless as the NLC, which cannot reengineer itself for the effective defence of the interests of Nigerian workers, talk less of making an impact in the murky waters of Nigerian politics.
It beggars belief that despite his rebellion to the party in 2023, his ministership in the APC government, and his running battle with the PDP government in Rivers State, he is beyond reproach by any of the party organs, which underscore his influence in the party. If he couldn’t be the party’s dark horse in 2027, what could prevent his proxy from becoming one? With his imprimatur in the party, what can prevent him from strategically foisting his front (such as Ortom) as the party’s national chairman to undertake APC’s hatchet job to destroy or inflict a lasting damage to the party, before ditching it to where his political sympathy lies; because his vengeance, like a wounded lion’s, is unbounded?
Third, if Mr Obi were to re-join the party, the Igbo factor could as well be a threat to Mr Abubakar’s ambition; who could use whatever they have to advance the Igbo presidential cause in the party.
Fourth, should the ticket of the party be unzoned as it was in 2023, any northern caucus of the party could be influenced to back a much younger candidate, with a war chest, and political machine comparable to Mr Abubakar’s, who would anyway be difficult to find. Probably, Senators Saraki, or Tambuwal could be his likely replacements.
Unlike minister Wike who posed a serious challenge in the last PDP presidential primaries, another new breed politician, whose jokingly irritating outing in the last primaries exposed the provinciality of his candidature was Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State; whose hope was high, which facilitated his rejection of reconciliatory moves to enhance northern clout in the primaries, but miserably ended up the 5th with only 20 votes; which could be assumed to be the only votes for Bauchi State, which had 20 delegates, one each for its 20 LGAs, the lowest score by an incumbent governor in the primaries, which underscores the necessity of forging a formidable political machine, and network of bridges for presidential contest in Nigeria. Whether or not there was any lesson for him in the primaries, which could excite him or not with the next primaries only time would tell.
The Labour Party, which performed impressively in the last election, is engulfed in an ownership tussle with the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), and the obidients. One might ask: where were the labour oligarchs when the obidients overran the party in 2019? Without the obidients, can the NLC politically project the party to any height in Nigeria? If they could, why didn’t they make any attempt before the coming of the obidients? Should Peter Obi exit the party, he would leave with the obidients; and the party would be as hollow, and almost lifeless as the NLC, which cannot reengineer itself for the effective defence of the interests of Nigerian workers, talk less of making an impact in the murky waters of Nigerian politics; it would only be fit for junior partnership in a gang up against the ruling party ; or with the ruling party.
The provincialism of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) is inhibitive of appreciable inroads in presidential election, which could only be useful in a gang up with the ruling party; or against it.
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The moves towards 2027 are as uncertain as they are exciting. Since the ruling APC is at the beck and call of President Tinubu; the uncertainty and excitement of the moves are driven by the intrigues in the major opposition party, the PDP which is captive to different interests. And with the clamour of the North Central zone to reclaim the PDP chairmanship, exclusive interests could foist Mr Ortom, the former governor of Benue State, who was a G5 member, as the chairman of the party, which could pave the way for the emergence of Wike or his front as the presidential candidate of the party.
And most Nigerians are as obsessed with 2027 as the politicians; whose existential psyches are bruised by the economic policies of the APC, especially subsidy withdrawal, which has exponentially increased cost of living; whilst the government has refused to honour its agreements with Nigerian workers; dangling a miserable amount as minimum wage; which should drive their obsession with the next election, when they could choose a party of their choice which could prioritise their needs, and effectively secure their lives.
Jahun, a commentator on public affairs, is based in Dutse, Jigawa State. He can be reached via email @: aminuhabibu58@gmai.com
