BY ABADOM LAWRENCE AMECHI
WHAT seems like a gang-up by some Igbo political elites against Peter Obi is not merely an affront against Obi; it is, in my view, an affront against the collective political aspirations of the Igbo people across the globe. This phenomenon can best be explained through what I call the ‘Myth of Crabology’.
It is believed that if about 100 crabs are placed in an open basket and the owner travels, the crabs will remain in the basket, regardless of how long the owner stays away. The reason is simple: whenever one crab attempts to crawl out, the others pull it down. That tendency to prevent one another from escaping is what is commonly referred to as the Crab Mentality, or Crabology.
Criticise Pastor Enoch Adeboye, Wole Soyinka, Tunde Bakare, or even any of their great men from now until Kingdom come; they will not join you in opposing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the open. This is because the Yoruba project is more important to them than the Nigerian project. Yorubas will say: “I am first a Yoruba person before I became Nigerian.” To them, Yoruba comes first, and there is nothing wrong with that. The same policy is what Donald Trump is pursuing in America.
That, in my view, is precisely what is happening in the Igbo political space today.
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This attitude did not start now; it has become the Igbo way of life. When Peter Obi was appointed as running mate to Atiku Abubakar in 2019, many Igbo politicians were visibly angry and were venting their anger in the public space. The Igbo have a “Why-not-me?” syndrome – a “No-one-is-better-than-me” attitude.
The most disheartening development in the South-East political space today is no longer infrastructure deficit, economic hardship, the much-talked-about neglect, or the ugly self-determination struggle, but the eagerness with which some Igbo political elites appear determined to undermine our collective political aspirations by ensuring that Peter Obi’s presidential ambition is buried alive.
The energy Obi’s traducers have brought into this “pull-him-down project” makes it seem as if the moment Peter Obi is pushed out of the presidential race, Igbo neglect will be over. Tinubu’s political bloc will gift the presidency to Soludo, Umahi, or Uzor Kalu on a platter of gold.
While Nigerians from other regions are watching the dance of shame with consternation, others are watching with glee. Some southern ethnic rivals may even be heaving sighs of relief, believing that the political naivety and lack of circumspection among the Igbo elites are working in their favour.
The Yoruba Question
The Yorubas have never pandered to or genuflected before any ethnic group for political recognition or patronage. They honed their political skills and had their skin toughened through their many years in the wilderness of opposition. Their elites never demonstrated a penchant for selling any of their own for recognition and patronage.
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In 1998, they were ready to be left out of the transition rather than be made to join political parties that did not project values that accommodated the interests of the region. The Alliance for Democracy (AD) was registered even when it did not meet the criteria for registration, just to ensure that they were not disenfranchised. That is what happens when a people know what they want.
No matter what is going on in Tinubu’s government today, all elites in the zone – from religion, commerce, politics, entertainment, sports, the monarchy, and academia – are not coming out openly to criticise him. If they have contrary opinions about his policies, they will discuss them internally. No tribe in Nigeria is influential enough to make the Yoruba elites resort to rubbishing Tinubu in the public space.
Criticise Pastor Enoch Adeboye, Wole Soyinka, Tunde Bakare, or even any of their great men from now until Kingdom come; they will not join you in opposing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the open. This is because the Yoruba project is more important to them than the Nigerian project. Yorubas will say: “I am first a Yoruba person before I became Nigerian.” To them, Yoruba comes first, and there is nothing wrong with that. The same policy is what Donald Trump is pursuing in America.
I agree that there are many Yorubas who genuinely support Peter Obi. They believe he is a good candidate and the right person for the job. There are also those who believe that, for the sake of equity and fairness, it is the turn of the Igbo to produce the President of Nigeria.
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There are others who understand that the struggle is fundamentally a class struggle, not a tribal contest. For these people, a good candidate can come from anywhere. Their support is based on competence, character, and the possibility of building a better Nigeria.
These classes of Yorubas can, at any time, whether now or in the future, support an Igbo candidate whom they consider qualified for the presidency. But the truth must also be told: there are political interests within the Yoruba establishment, especially among supporters of President Tinubu, that will be reluctant to support the idea of an Igbo man becoming President of Nigeria, especially when a Yoruba person presents himself for the same position.
Therefore, the job Igbo elites are doing to bring Peter Obi down is such that can never be rewarded.
The Tinubu Presidency and the Politics of Consolidation
For a Tinubu supporter, the Tinubu presidency will help break the political and economic rivalry between the South-West and South-East and put the West ahead of the East. Today, political and economic powers are in the hands of the Yorubas. The continuation of Tinubu’s presidency in 2027 is an opportunity to consolidate political and economic influence in the South-West, and this is very important to the average South-Westerner.
The 2027 presidential election presents a significant political moment. None of the Igbo Political elites that are concertedly working with Tinubu to undermine the chances of Peter Obi’s presidential ambition in 2027 can step into Obi’s political shoes if he decides to step down. None has a pan-Nigerian appeal like Obi. None of them can command organic followership like Obi. Obi is the best thing that has happened to Igbo land after the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe. If we miss Obi in 2027, the Igbo ethnic group will remain in political limbo for many years to come.
What works for the people of the South-West region is their capacity to work together. They see themselves as a people with a common destiny – qualities that the people of the South-East seriously lack. We fought the civil war because we were collectively fighting for our lives. History has shown that the fear of a common enemy can even bring strangers together. The truth is that no Igbo man wants to be led by another Igbo man, and in the struggle to be number one, we continue to pull ourselves down.
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When Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was president, some Yoruba critics accused him of handing over the Nigerian economy to the Igbo simply because he appointed Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as Minister of Finance and Chukwuma Soludo as Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The Yoruba would not allow political positioning that would give the Igbo people political and economic leverage over their tribe. The Igbo elites are not as sensitive or politically savvy as that.
That the Igbos are intelligent, resourceful, and capable of building wealth from scratch to the very top means little if they lack the capacity to harness their collective energy and talents toward a common ethnic aspiration of growth, survival, and national identity.
Until the Jews understood that the destiny of every individual Jewish person was inextricably linked to the collective actualisation of the destiny of the Jewish people, the world continued to toss them around from one place to another.
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Today, the Igbo elites, even in their rabid chase to pull Peter Obi down, have not noticed that national inclusion has become strange to the political appointment process. Nepotism is the order of the day, yet the people who once complained about Okonjo-Iweala and Chukwuma Soludo have not seen anything wrong now that the entire Nigerian economy is in the hands of the Yorubas.
If not for the fact that the law demands that every state should produce a minister, I am not sure the South-East would have one minister in this government.
The Danger of Igbo Political Short-Sightedness
The tragedy of the present moment is that most Igbo political elites appear more interested in short-term political rewards than in the long-term political destiny of their people.
I saw Senator Orji Uzor Kalu cry in 2023 that he was not considered for the post of Senate President. That is the same way all the Igbo political elites will cry before the world when Tinubu’s political bloc dumps them the next time the presidency returns to the South.
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The Igbos who may believe that supporting the incumbent will bring appointments, contracts, access, other benefits, and even support for an Igbo presidency may be in for a shocker, because where ethnic interests play major roles in political calculations, promises do not last long because of cultural dynamics.
In a political space where blocs and ethnic rivalries play major roles, nothing can be guaranteed. The political aspirations of the Igbo people cannot be secured by relying indefinitely on the goodwill of other political establishments that are seen as rivals.
No ethnic group should be expected to surrender its political aspirations merely because another group currently holds power.
If the Igbo political elites have made up their minds to work against Peter Obi, they must ask themselves a fundamental question: What exactly are they gaining, and what are they sacrificing? Are they securing a future for the Igbo people, or merely negotiating temporary relevance within a political arrangement that may not outlive the administration they support?
The Choice Before the Igbo
The 2027 presidential election presents a significant political moment. None of the Igbo Political elites that are concertedly working with Tinubu to undermine the chances of Peter Obi’s presidential ambition in 2027 can step into Obi’s political shoes if he decides to step down. None has a pan-Nigerian appeal like Obi. None of them can command organic followership like Obi. Obi is the best thing that has happened to Igbo land after the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe. If we miss Obi in 2027, the Igbo ethnic group will remain in political limbo for many years to come.
There are Yorubas who support Obi because they believe in his competence. There are Northerners who support him because they desire a different direction for Nigeria. Obi is loved by all good and reasonable Nigerians. There are people across the country who believe that equity requires the Igbo to have a fair opportunity at the presidency. These people are not necessarily supporting Obi because he is Igbo. They are supporting him because they believe he can offer a different political and economic direction.
That is why the opposition to Obi from his own constituency is so troubling. A person should not be the one pulling down the ladder when one of their own is attempting to climb.
The Myth of Crabology teaches us a lesson: sometimes, the greatest obstacle to escape is not the basket, but the crabs themselves.
The current Igbo political elites must decide whether they want to be remembered as the generation that opened the door to a new political possibility or the generation that pulled the ladder down.
The political future of the Igbo should not be sacrificed on the altar of personal pride, ego, and animosity. Peter Obi remains the best candidate among all the candidates contesting for the 2027 presidency.
A New Nigeria is possible. But it will require political courage, strategic thinking, and the ability to recognise the moment when it comes.
