By National Record
AS POPE Francis continued his papacy at the age of 87, speculation grew over who might succeed him when the time came for a new conclave. With his transition on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, the Roman Catholic Church is again faced with a process of electing a new pope, a process steeped in centuries-old tradition, secrecy, and intense scrutiny.
With the College of Cardinals playing a pivotal role, the impending Conclave could shape the future of the Catholic Church in profound ways.
How the Conclave Works
When a pope dies or resigns, the College of Cardinals gathers in Rome to elect his successor in a secretive assembly known as the Conclave (from the Latin phrase, cum clave, meaning “with a key”). Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, and the election requires a two-thirds majority.
Pope Francis has significantly influenced the composition of the College, having appointed over 70% of the current electors. This means the next pope may likely reflect his vision of a more inclusive, pastoral, and reform-minded Church.
Conclave Process
During the Conclave, cardinals will: take oaths to uphold the secrecy of the proceedings; participate in prayers and reflections; and vote until a candidate receives two-thirds majority.
Major Contenders for the Papacy
Although all the cardinals are contenders to become Pope; however, several of them have emerged as papabili (potential papal candidates) based on their influence, theological stance, and geographic representation.
Experts estimate the current number of eligible cardinal electors between 130 and 145, especially after Pope Francis created 21 new cardinals in Dec. 2024.
Here are some of the most prominent names likely to be elected to succeed Pope Francis.
1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – The Vatican Insider
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is one of the most powerful figures in the Holy See. A skilled diplomat, he has been instrumental in negotiating international agreements, including the China-Vatican deal. His deep knowledge of the Curia and moderate stance make him a strong contender.
2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – The Asian Reformer
Cardinal Tagle, currently the Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, is a charismatic leader known for his humility and pastoral approach. As a prominent Asian cardinal, his election would signal a shift toward the Global South, where Catholicism is growing fastest.
3. Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (Austria) – The Theological Bridge-Builder
A former student of Pope Benedict XVI, Cardinal Schönborn has been a key figure in doctrinal discussions. He balances tradition with openness to reform, making him a potential unifying candidate between conservative and progressive factions.
4. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – The Peacemaker
Cardinal Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, has gained prominence for his mediation efforts in conflict zones, including Mozambique. His pastoral focus and diplomatic skills could position him as a consensus candidate.
5. Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea) – The Traditionalist Voice
A favorite among conservative Catholics, Cardinal Sarah has been a vocal critic of progressive reforms. While his election seems unlikely given Pope Francis’ appointments, he remains a symbolic figure for traditionalists.
6. Cardinal Luis Ladaria Ferrer: Respected for his theological expertise as Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.
7. Cardinal Wilton Gregory: Recognized for his pastoral approach as Archbishop of Washington.
Dark Horse Candidates
- Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) – A leading voice on synodality.
- Cardinal Blase Cupich (USA) – A Francis-appointee known for progressive views.
- Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo) – Representing Africa’s growing Catholic population.
Factors To Influence the Next Conclave
The next Conclave will be influenced by a complex interplay of the following factors vis-à-vis the cardinals’ ability to navigate the challenges facing the Church.
Ideological Divisions: The Catholic Church is polarized between progressives and traditionalists, with Pope Francis’s reforms being a major point of contention.
Conservative cardinals may push back against Francis’s drive for inclusiveness, while progressive cardinals may support a more inclusive Church.
Global Events and Crises: The Church’s response to global issues like war, peace, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Israel-Palestine conflict may shape the election.
Additionally, the Church’s stance on social justice, human rights, and Vatican finances will be important considerations.
Sexual Abuse Crisis: The handling of sexual abuse cases will likely play a significant role in the Conclave, with cardinals being judged on their record of addressing abuse and preventing future cases.
Regional Considerations: The College of Cardinals has become more diverse, with cardinals from Africa, Asia, and Latin America playing a crucial role.
An African pope could potentially restore a conservative ethic, while European cardinals may push for a different direction.
Alliances and Power Dynamics: The Conclave will be shaped by alliances among cardinals, with some potentially rallying around specific candidates. Personal dynamics, strategic interests, and doctrinal alignment will also influence the election.
Pope Francis’s Legacy: Despite his efforts to shape the next Conclave through his appointments, history suggests that the outcome may not necessarily align with his vision. The next pope may choose to continue or depart from Francis’s reforms.
Other factors that could influence the choice of the next pope outside the above dynamics may hinge a consensus by the Cardinals to prioritize a younger pope, who may be in his 60s or early 70s – a consideration for stability against the backdrop of preceding two elderly pontiffs – Benedict XVI resigned at 85; Francis has governed into late age of 88.
Conclusion
The impending conclave, like others before it, will be a defining moment for the Catholic Church. While it is impossible to predict the outcome, the cardinals’ decision will hinge on whether they seek continuity with Pope Francis’ reforms or a return to tradition.
In addition to the dynamics around Pope Francis’ persona and reforms, the rise of the Global South and the Church’s response to modernity are sure to be decisive factors.
Beyond all these, and the likely behind-the-scenes lobbying, the Conclave, believed to be mediated by the Holy Spirit, often elected little-known successors of St. Peter.
