By Alleh Okpeh Alleh
THROUGHOUT human history, there is always something a nation, a people or a person contributes to the development of society. It could be in science, politics, arts and other fields of human endeavour. When such things evolve, human beings have a way of acknowledgement or appreciation. Guinness Book of Records records them; Nobel Foundation chooses from among the best to acknowledge, appreciate and as well record some of these contributions.
One of such contributions in the area of politics comes from the Greeks who invented and nurtured Democracy as a means of administering their society, which was exported and adapted by other nations as the most civilised system of governance. The major aspect of democracy is the voting system and the power of numbers in determining the preferred leader. In contemporary political economy, Democracy bears the trademark of ancient Greeks as one of the most effective and broadly acceptable options of governance donated to humanity.
Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, in his political theory, had suggested a kind of civil-military coalition of leadership wherein the military is incorporated into political leadership as a means to checkmate the excesses of the civilians in the top hierarchy so as to act as check to their excesses and possibly bring them back on track when they derail. Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha experimented something close to that, but rather than operate along Dr Azikiwe’s theory, they instead absolutised and personalised power to the exclusion of the civilian members in their administrations.
Against the backdrop of our political experience, it can be argued that since political independence, none of the systems of governance has successfully been operated in Nigeria. As it is with creation, there is no limit to knowledge neither is there any monopoly to knowledge. Thus, when our democracy was abrogated and supplanted by militocracy (military dictatorship) or autocracy, which soon became infected; Nigerians, in order to drive out of power the military, invented what could I prefer to call Terrorcracy, defined as a method of contest for power where propaganda and intimidation, in fact, all known and unknown methods of harassment including terrorism and insurgency are deployed to bully and outwit political opponents in the contest for power. Rather than fair democratic contests, Terrorcracy appears to be working perfectly here in Nigeria.
In 1993, IBB was ‘forced’ (as we are told) to annul an election where Abiola, a scion of Oduduwa, the Aare Onakakanfo of Yoruba land, was the presumed winner. In trying to actualise his victory and claim power, he was arrested, detained, where he eventually died. This angered his kinsmen who then took up arms, through Ooduwa Peoples’ Congress (OPC), after the efforts of national pro-democracy activists could not install Abiola in power.
When Nigeria was to return to governance by persons not in uniform, the Yoruba resorted to Terrorcracy – there were violent agitations, which led to actual murders of innocent Nigerians, bombings, arson, etc. To pacify the Yoruba nation for the wrong done to them, they (Yoruba) were literally handed the presidency of Nigeria. Chief Olu Falae and General Olusegun Matthew Okikiola Obasanjo were made major contenders of the two main political parties, and Obasanjo became the preferred candidate, don’t mind the fact that he wasn’t the choice of majority of the Yoruba, but he was crowned and his people at least got appeased.
Though Jonathan managed to win the election after serving out his boss’s tenure, in the electoral contest for a second term, he succumbed to the superior powers of our indigenous invention – Terrorcracy – and not through the Greek method as many may argue. The birth and nurturing of Boko Haram somewhere in Yobe or Borno became an effective tool to denigrate the Jonathan leadership. To save the country from Boko Haram, we were told, the only solution was to return the Presidency to the North and to a man seen then as capable of dealing with the insurgents. There emerged General Buhari, perhaps against his will, as he had vowed after contesting for the seat on three previous occasions to venture again, fearing he must have been weakened by age. Now we know!
As Obasanjo was getting close to the end of his second tenure, when all his attempts to get an alleged third term failed, the South-South, who had been the proverbial hen laying the golden egg on which the entire country survive, but who had been grossly marginalised and isolated from enjoying the proceeds of their God-given endowment, had by now understood the game.
Although they had, overtime, consistently cried to be allowed to control and enjoy their gift of nature and had actually revolted in the ’60s on the basis of that cause, rising up to the reality of Terrorcracy, they resurrected the spirit of their hero, Isaac Adaka Boro. Using the handbook of Terrorcracy, they formed their own terror group – Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND), an umbrella union of militant groups from the Niger Delta area, in 2006 reinforced and took up arms against the Nigerian state. To appease them, the Obasanjo government picked the second-in-command to his successor, Musa Yar’Adua, from the South-South in the person of Dr Goodluck Jonathan.
While Yar’Adua did everything to undo the past injustice against the Niger Delta region, he unfortunately died before achieving the target. But fortunately, power fell on the lap of the South-South Jonathan succeeded Yar’Adua.
Before or by the end of 2022, my instinct tells me that there may be no electoral structures left in the East; neither will there be security personnel with enough capacity to take on the Eastern mad dogs. By their orientation, they are not likely to take on civilians. After a while, they will gather enough sympathy from Nigerians, so the earlier the zoning is done the better to reduce the number of casualties.
Though Jonathan managed to win the election after serving out his boss’s tenure, in the electoral contest for a second term, he succumbed to the superior powers of our indigenous invention – Terrorcracy – and not through the Greek method as many may argue. The birth and nurturing of Boko Haram somewhere in Yobe or Borno became an effective tool to denigrate the Jonathan leadership. To save the country from Boko Haram, we were told, the only solution was to return the Presidency to the North and to a man seen then as capable of dealing with the insurgents. There emerged General Buhari, perhaps against his will, as he had vowed after contesting for the seat on three previous occasions to venture again, fearing he must have been weakened by age. Now we know!
That the North unfortunately miscalculated is an understatement. As an Idoma proverb says; “Egli ku be h’Ebonyi, o ge p’oha gen’ (when Egli, a mythical mini god, crosses Ebonyi, a mythical river, it hears prayers no more); the Buhari leadership has crossed Ebonyi River. As a falcon, Buhari no longer hears or listens to the falconer. He is incapable of controlling his kinsmen who for whatever reasons have turned the country upside down, descending on the country and unleashing terror on all of us.
In the midst of the bloodletting in the North is the rising tempest in the eastern horizon, where Nd’Igbo are already chanting war songs. The Igbo of South East of Nigeria made a mistake by taking on Nigeria when Nigeria was in their palms and needed no war then except to make the child their slave. How do you war when 80% of the means of moving Nigeria was in your hands? By that mistake, they created too many enemies within the Nigerian state which has perpetually placed them as suspect among the ruling elites as well as the commoners, particularly in the North.
But the greatest test Nigeria faces now may not be the northern terrorism and banditry. Rather, it is perhaps the political quest by Nd’Igbo to, like their Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba compatriots, rule Nigeria again. After all, are they not equal stakeholders? And does anyone have the monopoly of violence? As the Greek option of accessing power has refused to work here, why not deploy Terrorcracy? Ralph Uwazuruike understood this long time ago but Nd’Igbo were perhaps too civil and too republican to understand with him until now.
Now that they have come to their senses to resort our effective indigenous methodology of how to acquire power, then comes the idea of IPOB by a little boy called Nanmdi Kanu who shouldn’t be threatening a fly. Today, let’s not deceive ourselves, IPOB has been properly placed and can take on the state of Nigeria. The only solution is the 2023 presidency. It is either that the egg is broken or the chic is allowed to hatch it! My candid opinion and advice is that Nd’Igbo be compensated for any wrongs done to them so that Nigeria may have peace again. It may not matter who comes so long as he has the Igbo gene.
We may say anything, but IPOB and the ESN may, as operational strategy, not be willing to take responsibility for the violence and attacks on government facilities and personnel. But nevertheless, the message is being sent loudly and clearly.
Before or by the end of 2022, my instinct tells me that there may be no electoral structures left in the East; neither will there be security personnel with enough capacity to take on the Eastern mad dogs. By their orientation, they are not likely to take on civilians. After a while, they will gather enough sympathy from Nigerians, so the earlier the zoning is done the better to reduce the number of casualties.
Shakau, whether dead or alive; Igboho and Kanu are figures raised by the owners of Nigeria to force her neck to bend when the need arises, and this strategy will not disappear soon. Expecting a defeat of Boko Haram soon is equally a dream. If that is done soon, how do we raise another mad dog for 2030 for the North?
Perhaps the next mad dog may come from among the so-called ‘inconsequential’ minorities, the Kwararafas, who are laying claim as the real owners of Nigeria. They, collectively, constitute the majority, scattered amongst the majority ethnic nationalities across the country.
They are beginning to become conscious of their identity and raising awareness as to why they will no longer continue to be the tools in the hands of others in Project Nigeria; and how they could pick their pieces into a whole and take on the assumed majorities. After all, the proponents of Kwararafa posit, they fought the civil war for the North and the West and got sacrificed for all the coups in the country.
Let the crown move to the East. How the East will be able to organise the power shift to itself might be a major test of the efficacy of Terrorcracy. After that, who knows, perhaps 2037 may swing to Kwararafa, if they are able to nurture their mad dogs and if Nigeria still stands.
Dr Alleh, a public affairs analyst and commentator, lives in Abuja, FCT.
