IT IS legitimate to pose the question – is our State drifting towards anarchy? Do we have a social contract with State institutions that provide for security and welfare? It is a question worth posing. We note the dramatic breakdown in security provisioning that has created a climate of disillusion in the State as a protector for citizens.
Secondly, there is a significant rise and expansion of sectarian conflicts, both ethnic and religious, fuelled in part by massive disinformation and hate speech in both the traditional and social media.
Thirdly, Nigeria’s elite consensus on federalism and the federal character principle as a guarantee against group discrimination and marginalisation is badly shaken. We ALL have a collective responsibility to stop the drift and seek pathways to re-establish confidence in the nation-building project.
The problem is that we the people also live in Nigeria and we have not seen the remarkable 90% improvement in security in the country. In fact, a few days before his comments, General Tsiga, a retired general, was released by kidnappers only after friends and relations collected money and paid a huge ransom demanded by the almighty kidnappers. Significant security improvement is tangible and would be seen by the people whose lives and livelihoods are affected. There has been some improvement in security provisioning but it has not been significant enough to be noticed by the people.
Beneath the multiple narratives on offer concerning the crisis of the Nigerian State is a three-dimensional crisis.
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The first one affects the political economy and is generated mainly by public corruption over the past four decades that has created a run on the treasury at the national and state levels, threatening to consume the goose that lays the golden egg.
The second one is the crisis of citizenship symbolised by ethno-regionalism, the Boko Haram insurgency, farmer-herder killings, agitations for Biafra, militancy in the Niger Delta and indigene/settler conflicts.
The third element relates to the frustration of the country’s democratic aspirations in a context in which the citizenry believes in “true democracy” confronted with a reckless political class that is corrupt, self-serving and manipulative.
These issues have largely broken the social pact between citizens and the State. This has opened the gates to actors bent on dismantling the State.
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This week, the Borno State governor, Babagana Zulum, raised an alarm that the state seems to be losing grounds to terrorists. He was speaking during an expanded Security Council meeting which, he noted, was convened to hear the truth from major stakeholders, including traditional rulers and heads of security agencies in the state.
In attendance were the General Officer Commanding 7 Division, Major General Abubakar Haruna; sector commanders; the commissioner of police and heads of other security agencies; the Shehu of Borno, Alhaji Abubakar Garbai Al-Amin El-Kanemi as well as the emirs of Biu, Uba, Askira and Gwoza.
The DSS’ boss recounted historical instances where communities successfully defended themselves against insurgents, particularly in Azare and Tafawa Balewa in Bauchi State. I understand his logic, that communities know their territories well and can mobilise themselves to take care of violence entrepreneurs. The reality however is that the said violence entrepreneurs have procured very sophisticated arms and often, the community simply does not have the fire power to confront them.
Governor Zulum expressed concern over the recent Boko Haram attacks on major military formations across the state, saying that the state was at risk of returning to turmoil. Many military locations had been dislodged, especially in Wulgo, Sabongari, Wajirko, among others he said. The peace that had been won over the years in Borno State is apparently being lost once again. It is troubling that we cannot sustain the peace.
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Meanwhile, in Jos, Plateau State, Governor Caleb Muftwang also said this week that the continuous and sustained attacks on communities in the state should not be described as conflicts between herders and farmers but a genocide against the Plateau natives. This followed the killing of about 52 persons including children on Friday, 28th March, 2025, after armed men carried out attacks on communities in Bokkos and Bassa LGAs and their environs of the state. Similar stories are being told daily in other states such as Zamfara, Katsina, Niger, Benue and Kaduna.
Nigerian citizens are very concerned that there are no safe spaces in the country. The problem is that it appears that the Nigerian State is not aware.
Nigeria’s National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, claimed this week also that the country has recorded over 90% improvement in security under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. He made this assertion in Jos, Plateau state, during a press briefing following a strategic meeting with the commander of Operation Safe Haven, Major General Folusho Oyinlola. The meeting was convened after the deadly gunmen attack on Bokkos community, which tragically claimed the lives of hundreds of residents.
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There was no surprise that Ribadu’s statement, given the context of recent violence, sparked mixed reactions from across the political spectrum. Critics argue that the NSA’s comments are aimed at shaping public perception as politicking for the 2027 general election approaches. The remarks were understood by many as part of a broader political narrative to build confidence in the administration.
The State is based on a social contract in which it receives taxes and loyalty from the people and it offers them security – the protection of their lives and livelihoods. If it persists in its failure to provide its part of the bargain, then anarchy can loom on the horizon. The drift towards anarchy must be arrested.
The problem is that we the people also live in Nigeria and we have not seen the remarkable 90% improvement in security in the country. In fact, a few days before his comments, General Tsiga, a retired general, was released by kidnappers only after friends and relations collected money and paid a huge ransom demanded by the almighty kidnappers. Significant security improvement is tangible and would be seen by the people whose lives and livelihoods are affected. There has been some improvement in security provisioning but it has not been significant enough to be noticed by the people.
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In a recent lecture, the Director-General of the Department of State Services (DSS) says communities have a crucial role to play in securing themselves against criminal elements, adding that they must serve as the first line of defence. He specifically stated that it was impossible for all the security agencies to protect all Nigerians across nooks and crannies of the country.
If Oluwatosin Ajayi, the head of the secret police, can state this openly, it suggests that there is a shift of security responsibility at the highest level of the State. He was actually speaking in Abuja when he spoke at the maiden annual lecture of the National Association of the Institute for Security Studies in the presence of top echelons from the military, police and other para-military agencies in attendance, on the topic – “Mobilising Stakeholders to Curb Insecurity in Nigeria: A Practical Approach”.
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The DSS’ boss recounted historical instances where communities successfully defended themselves against insurgents, particularly in Azare and Tafawa Balewa in Bauchi State. I understand his logic, that communities know their territories well and can mobilise themselves to take care of violence entrepreneurs. The reality however is that the said violence entrepreneurs have procured very sophisticated arms and often, the community simply does not have the fire power to confront them.
It is also important to know that sometimes, the perpetrators are also from the community and know the layout. There are too many groups that have discovered that obtaining an AK47 can be their pathway to wealth because they are not in government where you can be wealthy by stealing without arms. Given the number of these disaffected young persons who are arming themselves to find solutions to their problems, we can easily fall into anarchy and were that to happen, we will ALL BE LOSERS as our lives would become nasty, brutish and short.
The State is based on a social contract in which it receives taxes and loyalty from the people and it offers them security – the protection of their lives and livelihoods. If it persists in its failure to provide its part of the bargain, then anarchy can loom on the horizon. The drift towards anarchy must be arrested.
Ibrahim is a professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, and Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development. He is also the Chair of the Editorial Board of Abuja-based online newspaper, PREMIUM TIMES.
