THE PEOPLES Democratic Party (PDP) and the Action Group (AG) belong to different epochs in Nigerian politics. Whereas the former is a product of the political struggles against military rule in the post-colonial epoch, the latter originated in the emancipatory struggles of the colonial period. Since the PDP evolved in a post-regional political milieu, it has a nationalist trajectory, whilst the AG had a predominant regional outlook.
Unlike the AG which was essentially an opposition party at federal level, the PDP was fortunate to be a ruling party for 16 years before it was pushed to become the leading opposition party in 2015, and has remained in that role since then. Political providence has boxed the PDP into a tight oppositional corner, the type occupied by the AG in the ’60s, transforming the PDP into the posthumous daughter of the AG, bestowing on the parties common attributes in opposition politics.
But since it has been bedridden with Wiketitis, the PDP has been incapacitated to treat its affliction, demonstrating the extent of damage inflicted on it. The recent galore of suspensions by different factions of the party underscores the ineffectual manner of sanctioning way-weird members since the onset of Wiketitis in PDP. The party was recently saved public ridicule by the intervention of Senator Bala Mohammed, chairman of its Governors Forum, who appealed to the polarised members of its National Working Committee to sheath their swords and revert to status quo ante.
First, they share the destiny of major African opposition parties, with prospects of displacing ruling parties from power, transforming them into preys, to be devoured by the governments in power. Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the AG leader and first Premier of Western Region, was confident of winning the House of Representatives election, to enable him to strike an alliance with another party to become the prime minister, made him to throw in the towel to contest the 1964 election.
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And due to the wide disaffection with the 8-year APC rule in Nigeria, the PDP was also confident that it would coast home to victory in the 2023 election, which made it to dismiss the post primaries threats as ephemeral, which wouldn’t have an impact on its prospects of winning the election.
Secondly, aggrieved party members became fifth columnists, reinforced with federal might to polarise the parties; whilst the courts, the police, the electoral agency, public vaults, etc, coercive and economic instruments of state buttressed the fifth columnists in bringing the parties down.
Third, the AG was infected with Ladipotitis, caused by differences in principles and outlooks between the AG leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, and its deputy leader, and Premier of the Western Region, Chief S. L. Akintola. While ideologically the Awolowo faction opted for democratic socialism, the Akintola faction was averse to it. Whereas the Awolowo faction wanted to seal an alliance with a faction of the NCNC, the Akintola faction preferred an alliance with the NPC. Though Chief Awolowo wanted to be consulted on major issues affecting the party and region, Chief Akintola however didn’t consider that necessary.
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The PDP is infected with Wiketitis, caused more by incongruent personality and ego projections than differences in principles and outlooks between Atiku Abubakar, its 2023 presidential candidate, and the runner up in its primaries, Mr Nyesome Wike. This divided the party into pro-Wike and pro-Atiku groups.
Ladipotitis was so deadly to have led to the removal of the Western Premier (S. L. Akintola) and governor (Sir Adesoji Aderemi); the judicial reinstatement of the former; declaration of state of emergency, which snowballed into a big crisis, contributed to the collapse of the 1st Republic.
If within so short a sojourn in power (1959 to 1964) the NPC/NCNC ruling coalition could use fifth columnists, reinforced with federal might, to unsettle the AG, and plunged it into a monumental crisis, from which it didn’t recover, only God knows what a decades-long-hatched presidency can plot to plunge its most potent rival into a bigger crisis. With a politically wounded Wike, the search for a perfect stooge to internally disorient the party by the government was over.
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If the recent Sokoto incident is a template, Wike wants to escalate the fight to the states, and in that case, in the first two scenarios of his expulsion or suspension from the party, Mr Nyesome Wike wouldn’t leave alone. And in all the scenarios, the party would hardly revert back to its pre-primaries shape. Despite being a nest of experienced politicians, the party would be the victim of its procrastination to nip the Wike threat in the bud.
The serious approach to treat AG’s Ladipotitis by the dismissal of its fifth columnists at its 1962 convention, demonstrated its resolve to sanction way-weird members, which, however, proved costly to the party, because the dismissed members founded another party which established an alliance, that won the 1964 election.
But since it has been bedridden with Wiketitis, the PDP has been incapacitated to treat its affliction, demonstrating the extent of damage inflicted on it. The recent galore of suspensions by different factions of the party underscores the ineffectual manner of sanctioning way-weird members since the onset of Wiketitis in PDP. The party was recently saved public ridicule by the intervention of Senator Bala Mohammed, chairman of its Governors Forum, who appealed to the polarised members of its National Working Committee to sheath their swords and revert to status quo ante.
Wiketitis could be as deadly as Ladipotitis. Despite clipping the wings of the Atiku group in the last election; planting proxies in the party organs; fighting the government of a political godson; immobilising the party to sanction way-weird members with counter sanctions, Mr Wike is not yet done with the PDP. He wants to make good his threats to escalate the crisis to the state branches of the party.
About a week ago, it was aired by BBC Hausa Service that Mr Wike’s points man distributed gifts to party members in Sokoto State. And at the right time, one wouldn’t rule out the use of anti-corruption agencies to reinforce the Wike group in its fight to crush the PDP.
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Should the PDP sanction Mr Wike and his lieutenants, it could lead to the following scenarios: first, he might leave the party and join the APC he is serving as a minister in its government. Secondly, he could form or join another party, as the Akintolas did after their expulsion from the AG in 1962. Thirdly, he could stay put in the party, engineering the sanction of party members on the other divide, deepening the crisis, with probable costly litigations.
To the extent to which a third world regime becomes subservient to American and Western economic and political controls, to that extent would it be free to repress political opposition and civil society. Succumbing to these controls through the takeover of economic policies by the IMF/WB in Nigeria, gives the APC-led regime the freedom to repress opposition parties without fear of sanctions from any quarters.
Belatedly, the PDP has come to terms with this reality, which made one of its prominent members to highlight the immense difficulties of defeating the Tinubu regime in 2027, because the regime could strangle the opposition and civil society without any qualms.
If the recent Sokoto incident is a template, Wike wants to escalate the fight to the states, and in that case, in the first two scenarios of his expulsion or suspension from the party, Mr Nyesome Wike wouldn’t leave alone. And in all the scenarios, the party would hardly revert back to its pre-primaries shape. Despite being a nest of experienced politicians, the party would be the victim of its procrastination to nip the Wike threat in the bud.
Jahun, a commentator on public affairs, writes from Dutse, Jigawa State Capital. He writes this column every Wednesday under the title “The Other Perspective”. He can be reached via email @aminuhabibu58@gmail.com or WhatsApp on +2347 39038088.
