SEVERAL days of celebrations were planned from Friday, 26 July, to mark one year after the seizure of power by the military junta in Niger. Among the arguments put forward by the military at the time of the coup were the deterioration of the security situation in the country and poor economic and social governance. One year later, both these are worse.
The head of the junta and his Prime Minister are playing a balancing act to save the national economy and build a new diplomacy.
There is still no roadmap for the transition to civilian rule in Niger. The inclusive national dialogue, announced last August, has not yet taken place. General Tiani promised then that the duration of the transition would not exceed three years. He has not mentioned this since. There appears to be no end for the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Fatherland (CNSP) as the military junta calls itself.
The activities of political parties remain suspended, with no prospect of resumption. Elected bodies have been dissolved, including at the local level. Nigerien civil society has expressed concern this year about a presidential decree that repeals controls on defence-related spending.
Security situation is deteriorating
“When we look at the number of security incidents, there were more incidents after the coup than before the coup, and the number of victims has also increased among soldiers,” says Seidik Abba, president of CIRES, the International Center for Studies and Reflections on the Sahel.
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“The geographical extent of the threat has increased. It now includes both the border area with Burkina Faso in the West and around Lake Chad to the East.
Human rights in ‘free fall’
On the human rights side, the NGOs – Human Rights Watch, Amnesty and FIDH – are worried. “Human rights are in free fall one year after the coup d’état”, is the unequivocal assessment.
“We are deeply concerned by the repression of civic and political space, but also of independent media, explains Illaria Allegrozzi, researcher on the Sahel for Human Rights Watch.
Several journalists have been arbitrarily arrested or have been victims of intimidation. Since the coup, media freedom has been severely restricted. The authorities have harassed and threatened journalists and many have told us that today they practice self-censorship because they are afraid of reprisals.
The IMF is now counting on contained inflation and double-digit growth in 2024. “The Nigerien economy has been much affected by political instability and sanctions following the army’s takeover in July 2023. Nevertheless, the short- and medium-term outlook has improved, between the lifting of sanctions, oil exports and improved agricultural production,” stressed the Fund’s Deputy Managing Director.
“The cybercrime law has been revised to reinstate prison sentences for defamation through an information system. The amendment of this law is a very dangerous step backwards that could be used to silence any voice deemed dissenting from human rights defenders, activists, journalists.”
How General Tiani wants to save economy from sinking
The head of the junta and his Prime Minister are playing a balancing act to save the national economy and build a new diplomacy.
In early February 2024, the ECOWAS states decided to lift their economic sanctions (border closures, freezing of assets, transactions with other ECOWAS countries) adopted after the military took power.
“The political situation is at an impasse, there is no point in penalizing the populations any longer,” argued a diplomat from a neighbouring country at the time.
IMF and World Bank resume operations
After suspending their action for several months, the IMF and the World Bank have resumed their discussions with the government. In particular, the World Bank approved at the end of June 2024 a very large support program of $1 billion over 12 years for the agriculture and livestock sectors.
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A month earlier, the IMF sent a team to Niamey. At the end of the mission, the resumption of cooperation was confirmed. And on July 18, the IMF Board of Directors announced the immediate disbursement of support of approximately $71 million to strengthen the country’s macroeconomic stability and help it finance its ecological transition.
Nigerien households have suffered greater poverty. In the months following the coup, the prices of certain foodstuffs such as rice increased by almost 30% in some regions. But here again, importers responded by finding new routes to supply the markets, via Burkina Faso or through Nigeria, bypassing the checkpoints.
The IMF is now counting on contained inflation and double-digit growth in 2024. “The Nigerien economy has been much affected by political instability and sanctions following the army’s takeover in July 2023. Nevertheless, the short- and medium-term outlook has improved, between the lifting of sanctions, oil exports and improved agricultural production,” stressed the Fund’s Deputy Managing Director.
A welcome breath of fresh air for the junta
A few days earlier, the Prime Minister acknowledged in a televised speech that the country’s budget balance had been put to the test. “As you know, we have spent more than 8 months, or even 9 or 10, to convince the partners who have decided to suspend their cooperation to resume, so that the resources they provide can be used to make investments,” he explained.
Last year, the government halved its public investments compared to 2022 due to the drop in donor support. In the months following the coup, the government accumulated debts to its national and international creditors. In his speech, the Prime Minister acknowledged that the authorities had had to turn to the Chinese for financing.
In April 2024, they obtained $400 million from China, to be repaid over twelve months using revenues from the country’s future oil production. This fresh money was used to pay off arrears of several tens of millions of dollars to the World Bank, a clearance of the country’s debt that was essential for the resumption of the institution’s programs, but also of the IMF.
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Nigerien households have suffered greater poverty. In the months following the coup, the prices of certain foodstuffs such as rice increased by almost 30% in some regions. But here again, importers responded by finding new routes to supply the markets, via Burkina Faso or through Nigeria, bypassing the checkpoints. IMF statistics show that from October 2023 onwards, the prices of the average basket fell again and then rose more slowly for several months, even if the figures for April show a more abrupt increase.
Negotiating a way out
The Nigerien economy, while not in good shape, has shown resilience. The African Development Bank is even counting on 11% growth for 2024, thanks to oil revenues.
China of course also remains a central partner in the current configuration. For example, Niamey could turn to Beijing to finance the construction of an oil refinery and a petrochemical complex or the pipeline with which the country wants to transport its oil to Chad and thus no longer be dependent on its relations with Benin.
This optimism, shared by the IMF, nevertheless remains conditional on the resumption of crude exports from the Agadem field. Faced with the refusal of the Nigerien junta to open the border after the lifting of ECOWAS sanctions, the Beninese government arrested five Nigeriens in early June who had come to watch the loading of a cargo of oil transported from Niger via the pipeline built by the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).
In return, Niger shut the valves, interrupting its deliveries of oil (the Government of Benin is paid heavily to allow the transport of oil across its land). More than a month after this incident, the five Nigeriens were released. On July 24, a ministerial delegation from Niamey finally went to Cotonou to re-establish dialogue. Several issues were discussed: the difficulties in supplying Niger with medicines, the blockage of military equipment at the port of Cotonou, the resumption of oil exports and the junta’s suspicions about the presence of a French military base in northern Benin.
At the time of writing, Nigerien representatives said they were satisfied with the discussions with their Beninese counterparts, but no details had been communicated on the modalities for resolving the crisis. Penalised by this blockage and worried about the resurgence of terrorist attacks on its installations, CNPC suspended its activities in Niger on 21 July 2024.
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Taking note of ECOWAS sanctions, on September 16, 2023, Niger created the Alliance of Sahel States with the military juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali. And at the end of January, these three countries indicated that they intended to immediately leave the ECOWAS regional institution and eventually adopt a currency to replace the CFA franc.
Tehran, Moscow and Ankara
At the same time, Niamey has strived in recent months to find other partners to replace Western countries. In addition to France, with which the junta broke very quickly, the putschists demanded the departure of American soldiers and pushed Germany to announce the end of its military cooperation with Niger. These two contingents of troops should have completely left the country by the end of August.
In this context, the European Union has also stopped its cooperation. Within the EU, only Italy and Spain continue to work directly with the authorities. For these countries, the migration issues are such that it is necessary to avoid a collapse of the Nigerien state at all costs.
The Prime Minister of Niger has been on a series of tours to visit countries likely to provide him with aid. In January, he spent three days in Iran, then went to Russia and then to Turkey.
Mining permits cancelled
Relations with Turkey are not new, but they seem set to intensify. On July 16, the Minister of Foreign Affairs was in Niamey with a large delegation including at least one representative of the defence industry and an intelligence official. On that occasion, the two countries signed a contract facilitating access for Turkish companies to Niger’s natural resources.
The military junta of Niger has been able to survive its first year by playing off different governments. It has also extended relations with China and found new partners like Russia, Iran and Turkey.
The agreement comes at a time when the junta is reviewing its mining contracts. In June, it withdrew two permits from the French company, Orano, and the Canadian company, GoviEx, for uranium deposits that have not yet been exploited. According to Bloomberg, Turkish companies have expressed their interest. The American agency had also reported discussions between Niamey and the Russian nuclear specialist Rosatom on this subject.
“Currently, the most important thing for Niger is to receive help to secure its territory. The economy is taking second place. Russia, Turkey or Iran will not be able to offer it the financial support (donations and loans) that France provided until last year. We are still talking about a drop of around 100 million euros per year,” says a Western source.
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China of course also remains a central partner in the current configuration. For example, Niamey could turn to Beijing to finance the construction of an oil refinery and a petrochemical complex or the pipeline with which the country wants to transport its oil to Chad and thus no longer be dependent on its relations with Benin. The Chadian Government has already shown some interest. The Chadian Minister of Oil was in Niamey from July 10 to 13 to formalise the resumption of discussions on this project.
General Tiani recently cited on television a series of successes for his first year in power: the denunciation of the Defence Agreements that linked Niger to France, the dismissal of the French ambassador, the suspension of “certain French propaganda media” (RFI and France 24), the withdrawal of French troops, the repeal of the law on illegal trafficking of migrants, the withdrawal from ECOWAS, the denunciation of the military agreement with Benin, the nationalisation of the national water company, the denunciation of the tax convention established with France, or the denunciation of the agreement on the status of military personnel of the United States.
This certainly shows the power of African governments, if they choose to act, but is it really improving the state of poverty of most people in the country? The military junta of Niger has been able to survive its first year by playing off different governments. It has also extended relations with China and found new partners like Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Comrade Batubo, a member of Socialist Labour, writes from Abuja. He can be contacted on 0916 693 3998
