FOR NIGERIAN politicians, the season of accusations and furious refutations is around too early before 2027. After its triumphant chest-beating of undertaking audacious reforms, the APC is furious that it could be accused of incompetence and misgovernance; clannishness and ethnic cronyism; corruption and economic banditry, poverty- and hunger-inducing policies, etc, by the opposition parties.
But before its rage could subside, it must have been further thrown off balance by the 7th August Daily Trust‘s editorial: ‘Nigerians Are Hungry’, laboriously but unconvincingly refuted by its public relations spin doctors.
If a broad non-fragmented opposition could win the political souls of the electorate to once again revive their interest in a political messiah, would their votes be allowed to count? It was the fear of making votes not to really count which made the late General Buhari to coin his electoral battle cry: a kasa, a tsare, a raka, a jira (to vote, to wait and escort the ballot box to the collation centre and await result declaration). Could this save the opposition in 2027?
The spate of blames, refutations and scapegoating underscores an impending clash of wills by the ruling and opposition parties. But the million naira question is: who or what could save the opposition from being crushed in 2027? Is it the electorate or INEC? Is it the judiciary or a powerful global democratic ombudsman?
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But before discussing that, are the critics – politicians and others – unjustified in their criticisms of the APC government? Are the criticisms, as are disingenuously portrayed by the propagandists of the regime, dictated by a regional malice against PBAT rather than facts on the ground?
Let’s take the reforms first. Was fuel subsidy withdrawal unavoidable? For those who regard it as inevitable, the haste of its withdrawal was problematic. Without the guardrails against its poverty inducing effects – subsidised public transportation, indexing wages to inflation rates, anti-inflationary policies, palliatives for the most vulnerable groups, transparent management of withdrawal windfalls, the reforms would only become monstrous deformities. Aren’t they already?
For those who regard the removal as unnecessary, there is no sense in punishing over 200 million Nigerians due to the subsidy administration abuses of a cabal, containable if there is the political will to do so. Rather than channelling the subsidy windfalls to the governors to spend anyhow – mostly on re-election, succession and post-gubernatorial agendas – both groups would have been satisfied with the removal, if there had been sufficient provisions against its negative effects, and a subsidy removal windfalls management agency as effective and transparent as the late General Abacha’s Petroleum (Special) Trust Fund.
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The editorial offensive to the regime on hunger relied on statistics from UNICEF, Cadre Harmonise Food and Nutrition Analysis, CBN and Save The Children International (SCI). If NBS statistics could acceptably be used to rebase the Nigerian economy, what prevents the Daily Trust from using data from reputable organisations to sensitise the authorities on food insecurity in the nation?
But could the National Assembly, as it is presently constituted and led, midwife any reforms that could rock the boat against electoral malfeasance? It would be difficult, if not impossible, for the 10th National Assembly to undertake the reforms to incapacitate the electoral agency from manipulating election results.
Having digressed, let’s go back to the question: who could save the opposition from the incumbent might of the APC? Apparently, the opposition hasn’t learnt any lessons from its success and defeat in 2015 and 2023. Rather than closing ranks as it did in 2015, and as was done in Senegal in 2024, lamentably, the Nigerian opposition is getting fragmented as it was in 2023, and a disjointed opposition is an electoral gift to Nigeria’s ruling party.
As victims of misplaced political trust, the Nigerian electorate has painfully learnt that not all political messiahs could be trusted. An electorate as poor as Church mouse, de-radicalised and almost irretrievably lost to the-grab-the-electoral-bribes-and-vote-according-to-your-conscience NEPU/PRP tradition, could hardly resist the carrots from the subsidy windfalls deployed in vote buying and other electoral malfeasance by the ruling parties.
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If a broad non-fragmented opposition could win the political souls of the electorate to once again revive their interest in a political messiah, would their votes be allowed to count? It was the fear of making votes not to really count which made the late General Buhari to coin his electoral battle cry: a kasa, a tsare, a raka, a jira (to vote, to wait and escort the ballot box to the collation centre and await result declaration). Could this save the opposition in 2027?
The last two are crucial saviours and the most problematic. Since neither the president nor the National Assembly could initiate far-reaching electoral and judicial reforms to deepen democracy, the onus is on the opposition, civil society organisations, and non-ruling democratic stakeholders to fight for these reforms before 2027, or else 2023 would be fairer than 2027.
There should be a change of paradigm by the opposition. They should radicalise the electorate to accept electoral bribes as a manna from Abuja and vote according to their political conscience. But before votes could really count, there must be electoral reforms devoid of any ambiguity to allow INEC to skip any of its processes, or bend them to favour a candidate, pushing the button to the Judiciary for final determination.
But could the National Assembly, as it is presently constituted and led, midwife any reforms that could rock the boat against electoral malfeasance? It would be difficult, if not impossible, for the 10th National Assembly to undertake the reforms to incapacitate the electoral agency from manipulating election results.
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Since reforms were good and redeeming for the electoral umpire, they would also be good for the judiciary, which, despite palpable electoral heists over the years, never had a cause to upturn any of the Maurice Iwu-type presidential elections. Surgical reforms would restore its lost glory and stature as an impartial arbiter in all disputes – electoral and others.
A powerful antidote to save the opposition from the incumbent might of the ruling party is to have a strong, united opposition front merge or have ADC, NNPP and PDP to work together; radicalise the electorate along the discarded NEPU/PRP trajectory of refusal to commercialise votes; comprehensive electoral and judicial reforms.
The last two are crucial saviours and the most problematic. Since neither the president nor the National Assembly could initiate far-reaching electoral and judicial reforms to deepen democracy, the onus is on the opposition, civil society organisations, and non-ruling democratic stakeholders to fight for these reforms before 2027, or else 2023 would be fairer than 2027.
Jahun, a public affairs analyst writes from Dutse, Jigawa State capital. He can be reached on 07039038088.
