MORE than 40 leading virologists worldwide have raised concerns over the growing threat of a potential H5N1 bird flu pandemic. In a report published in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas by the Global Virus Network (GVN), experts warned that the virus is evolving and moving closer to human-to-human transmission.
H5N1, a strain of avian influenza, has historically infected birds but has increasingly spread to mammals, including pigs and cattle, over the past two years.
Scientists caution that this development could signal an increased risk of transmission to humans.
While human cases remain rare, the virus has an alarming fatality rate, killing approximately half of those infected.
The report highlights critical gaps in global pandemic preparedness, including weak disease surveillance at the animal-human interface, unclear mitigation strategies, and insufficient health system strengthening despite lessons from COVID-19.
Dr. Christian Bréchot, President of the GVN, emphasized that while global leaders pledged better readiness after COVID-19, significant vulnerabilities remain.
“We are at a critical juncture. The virus is adapting to mammals, and if it gains efficient human-to-human transmission, the consequences could be far deadlier than COVID-19,” the scientists stated.
To mitigate the risk, the GVN proposed a ten-point action plan, urging governments to, among others, accelerate genomic data sharing to track viral mutations; enhance vaccine development, stockpiling, and rapid deployment systems; strengthen farm biosecurity to reduce animal-to-human spread; and develop detailed pandemic response plans, including testing and vaccine distribution frameworks.
Others include, to invest in rapid clinical trials for emerging strains; Improve local surveillance for faster outbreak detection; and, strengthen communication across global public health networks.
The report stressed the need for international collaboration, warning that isolated efforts would be inadequate against a potential pandemic. Although current outbreaks in North American dairy cows have been mild, scientists cautioned that H5N1’s historical 50% human mortality rate underscores its severe threat.
“If we underreact now, we may pay a terrible price later,” Bréchot said.
In Nigeria, experts echoed concerns, noting that fragile health systems could be overwhelmed by a new pandemic.
Dr. Ifeanyi Okeke, a virologist in Abuja, urged the government to enhance surveillance at animal-human contact points, such as live bird markets and abattoirs, and to collaborate with international partners on vaccine access and genomic monitoring.
“We cannot afford to be caught off guard,” Okeke emphasized.
The GVN concluded that while the timing of a potential H5N1 pandemic remains uncertain, the evidence demands immediate, coordinated global action to prevent another catastrophic health crisis.
“The clock is ticking. Complacency now could cost millions of lives later,” the scientists warned. (NAN)
