ON FEBRUARY 28, 2026, 100 United States and Israeli planes attacked Iran with the goal of imposing a “regime change” and stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The planes bombed more than 1000 targets in the Iran cities of Tabriz, Karaj, Qom, Tehran, Isfahan and Kermanshah.
The Israeli planes assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, while the US planes murdered 168 persons, including 108 school girls, in Minab, Hormozgan province. Trump named the unprovoked war “Operation Epic Fury”. He called on Iranians to “take over your government because “the hour of your freedom is at hand”.
The Dangote Refinery gantry price of N1,275/liter is a very high oligopolistic petrol price. The NMDPRA, Dangote Refinery and the Tinubu administration claimed that the very high petrol prices in Nigeria are due to “current fluctuations driven by market forces and supply dynamics under deregulated regime” and the world wide supply disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, unlike other nations, NNPCL did not offer any buffer against the external international crude oil price disruption despite having a 30 days’ supply of petroleum products as a strategic reserve.
Iran responded with drone attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, UAE, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) delivered an urgent message to all ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The message stated: “Attention all ships! From now on, all navigating through the Strait of Hormuz is forbidden!”. The Strait of Hormuz was closed and 700 ships, including 400 oil tankers carrying 200 million barrels of crude oil were stranded in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Sixteen ships were attacked and about 8 crew members killed for trying to pass through the strait.
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The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. It is the major export route for oil and gas exports from Iran, Oman, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Iraq and Qatar. One hundred and thirty commercial ships containing 20 million barrels of crude oil and about 20% of global LNG pass through the Strait daily. The closure of the Strait has reduced the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply by 20% leading to a rise in the price of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas.
In Europe, the G7 nations (USA, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada and Japan) held a meeting and decided not to release 400 million barrels from its 90 days crude oil strategic reserves of 1.24 billion barrels. Trump had no alternative but to lift sanctions which had been imposed on Russian oil and gas exports as a deterrent on its war on Ukraine. He considered forcing the Strait of Hormuz open by escorting ships through it. However, this option was discarded when the NATO nations declined to be a part of the military effort.
Petrol prices increased worldwide as the price of crude oil rose from $60/barrel to over $100/barrel.
In the war-affected Middle East nations, petrol prices rose to N513/litre in the open market in Iran, N463/litre in Kuwait, N705.5/litre in Qatar, N836.7/litre in Saudi Arabia, N841.1/litre in Oman, N841.9/litre in Bahrain, N880.7/litre in Iraq and N913.8/litre in UAE.
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Even in the USA, one could buy petrol on March 24, 2026, at the Valero petrol station on 401, W. Commerce Street in Fairfield, Texas at $2.59/gallon or N945.7/litre ($1/N1382). But, in Nigeria, petrol prices rose to N1,330/litre as Dangote Refinery increase gantry price at the refinery gate to a very high N1,275/litre.
Dangote refinery supplies 92% of Nigeria’s daily petrol demand of 46.5 million litres per day following the NMPDRA pause on the importation of petroleum products in 2026. The previous year, Aliko Dangote had carried out numerous public press conferences attacks against NNPCL, the marketers, the importers, the international petroleum products traders, the distributors and the trade unions in his struggles to become an oligopoly and dominate the Nigerian downstream petroleum market.
He accused NNPCL of trying to sabotage his refinery by not delivering enough crude oil (payable in naira) and fixing low petrol prices. He proclaimed that NNPCL does not have the capacity to run the four government refineries. He insisted that the government refineries could not be repaired and would never run again. He called the international traders and fuel importers an “oil cabal” whose antics were worse than a drug cabal for importing petroleum products and selling at prices below Dangote’s oligopolistic prices.
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He accused the CEO of NMDPRA, Farouk Ahmed, of corruption thereby forcing him to resign. He attacked the trade unions and refused to hire NUPENG union members as truck drivers until a successful strike action forced him to capitulate. He fired 800 young Nigerian engineers for joining PENGANSAN and accused them of industrial sabotage.
Finally, he transferred the 800 engineers to his cement and sugar factories when forced to rehire them following a strike action. He imposed very high oligopolistic fuel prices on the Nigerian working class and the Nigerian nation as a whole.
An increase in the price of petrol leads to an immediate increase in the prices of food, fuel/power, transport, housing, services, clothing, education and health. These constitutes an immediate increase in 94.8% of the household expenditure of a Nigerian working class household on a fixed salary. The working class is forced into multi-dimensional poverty. In 2026, 150 million Nigerians or 62% of the projected Nigeria’s population of 242.4 million citizens live in abject poverty. Dangote’s oligopolistic petrol prices appropriates more wealth from these suffering masses for the pecuniary benefits of its refinery’s shareholders.
The Dangote Refinery gantry price of N1,275/liter is a very high oligopolistic petrol price. The NMDPRA, Dangote Refinery and the Tinubu administration claimed that the very high petrol prices in Nigeria are due to “current fluctuations driven by market forces and supply dynamics under deregulated regime” and the world wide supply disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, unlike other nations, NNPCL did not offer any buffer against the external international crude oil price disruption despite having a 30 days’ supply of petroleum products as a strategic reserve.
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NNPCL has designed the strategic reserve, as the supplier of last resort, to protect the Nigerian economy from international price shocks and fuel shortages. Apart from this, Dangote Refinery has a strategic supply tank inventory of 5.36 billion litres (33.7 million barrels) or 99 days production at 100% operating capacity.
These strategic petrol reserves were not released into the market. Rather, a “rocket” model was imposed with an immediate high oligopolistic petrol price hike to N1,275/litre justified by higher worldwide crude oil prices. Yet, whenever crude oil prices fall, Dangote refinery lowers petrol prices slowly under a “feather” model to maximise oligopolistic profits.
Dangote Refinery gantry price of N1,275/litre is a very high oligopolistic petrol price aimed at a ripping-off the Nigerian masses on the short term because of the USA-Israel war on Iran.
First, petrol prices in Nigeria should be compared to petrol prices in other OPEC oil-producing nations, not to those in neighbouring nations like Benin and Chad that produce little or no crude oil. Petrol prices in most OPEC nations are lower than those in Nigeria. Current petrol prices are N31.7/litre in Libya, N47.35/litre in Venezuela, N442/litre in Angola and N481/litre in Algeria.
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Secondly, the components of petrol prices are made up of crude oil (50%), refining (15%), distribution and marketing (10%) and taxes (25%). Internationally, in a competitive market, a $1 per barrel rise in the price of crude oil lead to a $0.025 per gallon (N9.13/litre at $1/N1,382) rise in petrol prices.
In January 2026, the Qua Iboe crude oil price was $64/barrel while Dangote Refinery gantry petrol price was N699/litre. Today, Qua Iboe crude oil price is $104.73/barrel while Dangote Refinery gantry petrol price is N1,275/litre. Thus, for Dangote Refinery, a $1 per barrel rise in the price of crude oil lead to a N14.28/litre rise in petrol prices.
The 56% difference between Dangote’s N14.28/litre increase in petrol prices and the international competitive N9.13/litre increase for a $1/barrel rise in crude oil price is oligopolistic pricing leading to oligopolistic profits. This oligopolistic profit is at the expense of the Nigerian workers and the Nigerian masses. It constitutes an exploitative transfer of wealth from the Nigerian working class to Dangote Refinery shareholders.
The wages and disposable income of Nigerian workers are fixed. Minimum wages are fixed at N70,000 per month. The major household expenditure patterns of a Nigerian working class household are food (56%), fuel/power (5%), Transport (6.4%), Education (6%), Health (6.1%), Housing (5.3%), Services (5.5%) and Clothing (4.5%).
An increase in the price of petrol leads to an immediate increase in the prices of food, fuel/power, transport, housing, services, clothing, education and health. These constitutes an immediate increase in 94.8% of the household expenditure of a Nigerian working class household on a fixed salary. The working class is forced into multi-dimensional poverty. In 2026, 150 million Nigerians or 62% of the projected Nigeria’s population of 242.4 million citizens live in abject poverty. Dangote’s oligopolistic petrol prices appropriates more wealth from these suffering masses for the pecuniary benefits of its refinery’s shareholders.
Nigerian workers, students, trade unions and civil society organisations must organise to fight for lower petrol prices, higher wages, higher household disposable income, strong anti-trust laws against oligopolies and the repair of the four government owned refineries.
Dr Agbon, a consultant; was HOD, Department of Petroleum Engineering, University of Ibadan (UI), former ASUU Chairman, UI. He lives in the USA, and can be reached via: izielenagbon@yahoo.com, or Twitter: @izielenagbon.
