EACH election cycle is pregnant with intrigues, horse-trading and conflicts. They become deadly whenever the regime in power heats the polity with political blackmail, coercions and win-elections-at-all-cost manoeuvres. They were deadly in 2015, and are becoming deadlier as the 2027 election approaches.
These conflicts aren’t only inter-party, they are also intra-party in nature. The immobilisation of the PDP by fifth columnists of the regime, the replace-Shettima intrigues, and the forced resignation of Dr Umar Abdullahi Ganduje from APC National chairmanship are manifestations of intra-party struggles.
The nation neither requires a weak leader, nor an exceedingly powerful president. To forge ahead, Nigeria needs strengthened institutions (INEC, National Assembly, Judiciary, press bureaucracy, etc.), to facilitate an unencumbered democratic landscape.
The 2015 change movement which midwifed the APC, its confrontations with the PDP, and the political momentum to form a 2027 opposition coalition, and the strive by the ruling party to frustrate it, are manifestations of inter-party contestations for power.
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The 2027 electoral duel would be an asymmetrical conflict. The might of the Nigerian state could be deployed by the ruling combatants, whose Political Officer Commanding is unusually fixated on winning the war by all means. And the opposition coalition is hell bent on putting a heroic resistance to the political onslaught of the Tinubu regime. The war would be unusually fought on many fronts by multiple commands.
The opposition parties project the interests of the people, assume the tribuneship of society, and incessantly attack the ruling party for its commissions and omissions. But are the fights and the projections realistic?
The ten-year rule of the so-called pro-people, zero corruption tolerant change party, has given the lie to all the high-profile progressive posturing, struggles and conflicts on behalf of downtrodden Nigerians. They were a ruse and had less to do with changing the scary plight of the people. They were necessary political antics to pave the way for the enrichment of a few individuals and the enslavement of the nation.
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Since the leopard doesn’t change its spots, there is a growing cynicism that those who played crucial executive and legislative roles in the pre-2015 regimes, and those who helped to install the Tinubu regime in power, could hardly be the messiahs to save the nation. Bitten by the APC bug, Nigerians wouldn’t be bitten by the coalition bug.
After the 2015 oppositional initiative failed to reconstitute society in the image of poor Nigerians, the 2027 coalition would have to, beyond any doubt, convince the nation about the genuineness of its intentions.
Nigerians have to be convinced that the coalition would govern rather than rule, would run an inclusive administration, would reverse all opaque neoliberally-driven policies, wouldn’t have any special entitlement claim to anything besides the delivery of selfless public service – before they holistically embrace the coalition as a political redeemer.
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At various times in the past, despite its interests serving trajectory, the political class was morally and politically obligated to rescue the nation. The opposition coalition could reinvent the Nigerian state and save democracy, but these could only be done by avoiding the pitfalls of 2015.
Politically, the difference between 2015 and 2025 is like the gap between the mediaeval and revolutionary periods in European history. Ten years ago, there were electoral reforms to deepen democracy; there was power separation among the branches of government; and there was no heightened desperation by the ruling party to stay put in power. Unfortunately, these democratic gains are being eroded.
The nation neither requires a weak leader, nor an exceedingly powerful president. To forge ahead, Nigeria needs strengthened institutions (INEC, National Assembly, Judiciary, press bureaucracy, etc.), to facilitate an unencumbered democratic landscape.
The coalition should make its glorious days to coincide with its ascension to office, not before. It should avoid promises it can’t deliver. And it should avoid weak leaders who would return the nation to business as usual trajectory, or powerful ones who would abridge democratic rule to suit their designs.
Had the democratic progress of 2015 been consolidated, there would have been stronger national institutions, and there wouldn’t have been this ominous electoral war horizon over the nation. The polity wouldn’t have been as half heated as it is today.
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The glorious days of the opposition in the nation, were the APC pre-election days. In those days the common man was elated that there was a political redeemer to emancipate him from the PDP misrule. The APC was a beacon of hope to the people. With a charismatic leadership and tall promises, it cultivated the aura of a formidable dependable opposition front.
In those days, the APC never lost focus of its objective: to capture political power to make Nigeria great again. It was that commitment which made possible its hitch- and rancour-free presidential primaries. The coalition should better emulate the APC in its glorious pre-election days.
Unfortunately, the glorious days lasted less than two years, incrementally ended when it took over power.
The coalition should make its glorious days to coincide with its ascension to office, not before. It should avoid promises it can’t deliver. And it should avoid weak leaders who would return the nation to business as usual trajectory, or powerful ones who would abridge democratic rule to suit their designs.
The plight of Nigerians would favourably improve by reinventing the Nigerian state, strengthening democracy, inclusive governance, equitable distribution of resources, and institutional renewal – a highly probable agenda of the opposition coalition. This would make the coalition party – the ADC – the common man’s party in Nigeria, as the APC was his tribune in its glorious pre-election days.
Jahun, a public affairs analyst, writes from Dutse, Jigawa State
