ON Monday of this week, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its latest consensus report from global scientists. Its conclusion is that the current unprecedented global warming is “unequivocally” due to human activity.
António Guterres, the UN Secretary General, warned: “[This report] is a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.”
Governments from 197 countries will meet this November in Glasgow, Scotland, for vital UN climate talks, called Cop26. Each government is asked to come to Cop26 with fresh plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will limit global heating to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the ambition of the Paris climate agreement (December, 2015) and a goal the IPCC emphasised was still possible, but only just.
Scientists Support Climate Emergency Warning
Also recently, around 14,000 scientists from 153 countries endorsed an article that declared a climate emergency warning that if we continue with business as usual, the result will be “untold human suffering”.
There has been an unprecedented surge in climate-related disasters since 2019, including devastating flooding in South America and Southeast Asia, record shattering heat waves and wildfires in Australia and the western United States, an extraordinary Atlantic hurricane season, and devastating cyclones across South East Africa, South Asia, and the West Pacific.
Not only is the world warming 10 times faster than during any time for the last 65 million years, but several irreversible tipping points are likely to increase this rate further. These include the collapse of the Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets that could lead to further sea level rises with huge implications on the Niger Delta. Shifts to the West African and Indian Monsoons resulting in further falls to the rainfall in Northern Nigeria; permafrost thawing in Northern America and Russia with the release of huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide. This will lead to further increases in temperature and so greater releases of greenhouse gases. For more details see: https://tinyurl.com/tippingpointnigeria
Climate change is only one factor, or planetary boundary, in what we may call the metabolic rift – the break between humans and their environment leading to an unsustainable world.
Other factors include:
- Change in biosphere integrity – extinction rate of species which may currently be a thousand times the rate of the last few million years at 10,000 species a year.
- Stratospheric ozone depletion – loss of the ozone layer now largely overcome due to a change in the use of refrigerants.
- Ocean acidification – leading, for example, to the bleaching of coral reefs.
- Biogeochemical flows – mainly through the widespread use of nitrogen and phosphorous fertilisers and resultant algae blooms.
- Land-system change (for example deforestation) – world has lost nearly 40% of its forests feeding into climate change and loss of genetic diversity. Nigeria only has 10% tree cover and losing 1/20 of this each year.
- Freshwater use – leading to lack of safe water for humans and water wars, for example, the Ethiopian threat to dam the Nile and China’s great dams. One in five Nigerians do not currently have access to safe drinking water and half do not have adequate sanitation – hence the current out-break of cholera that has killed more than Covid-19 this year.
- Atmospheric aerosol loading – leading to air pollution and smog’s (made worse by European diesel manufacturers fiddling the emission tests on their cars). Each year over six million people may die prematurely due to air pollution (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 2018). Cooking with wood or charcoal makes it worse here.
- Introduction of novel entities – for example, Bisphenol A (BPA) found in plastic bottles and other places has been recognised in Europe as causing cancer, diabetes and learning difficulties. This is one of the world’s best-selling chemicals.
Four of these nine planetary boundaries have now been crossed as a result of human activity, says an international team of 18 researchers in the journal Science (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855). These four key factors are: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system change and altered biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and nitrogen).
Scientists urge a six-point action program to address and prevent such future disasters that require a complete change of direction for the world:
- Energy – eliminating fossil fuels and shifting to renewables;
- Short – lived air pollutants, slashing black carbon (soot), methane, and hydrofluorocarbons;
- Nature – restoring earth’s ecosystems to store and accumulate carbon and restore biodiversity;
- Food – switching to mostly plant-based diets and reducing food waste;
- Economy – moving from indefinite GDP growth and overconsumption by the wealthy;
- Human population – stabilising and gradually reducing the population.
All the above transformative climate action should focus on social justice for all by prioritising basic human needs and reducing inequality.
Several of these action points are especially relevant for us in Nigeria. What impact will the elimination of the use of oil and gas have? How will we slash back soot production by cooking with wood or charcoal? How will the vision of the Great Green Wall (originally promoted by Thomas Sankara of Burkina Faso) be realised across northern Nigeria? How will we stabilise the population as the country is heading to double its population and become the third largest country in the world before 2050? Give the impact of global warming locally, these action points also become especially important and directly relevant.
Global Warming and Its Local Impact
Global climate change is already having a detrimental impact on the people of Nigeria. Average temperatures have risen higher than the global average and are higher still for the more northern areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified Nigeria as a climate change “hot spot” likely to see further major shifts in weather before 2100.
In the north, the rains are reducing and becoming more irregular, but individual storms may be more intense. This is producing extensive desertification coupled with flooding. In the south, the rains are increasing, timings are less reliable and again floods are becoming more common. Coupled with rising sea levels, this has led to coastal erosion especially around Lagos and in the Niger Delta.
Unpredictable rainfall makes it difficult for farmers to decide when to plant their crops. Some 85% of all agriculture is rain-fed, and many crops are sensitive to even tiny shifts in rainfall and temperature. Shifts in the timing and distribution of rainfall are affecting agricultural practices, crop production, and food security. It is likely to lead to lower crop yields and so higher food prices. Many workers already spend more than half their salaries on buying food. Food inflation of around 22% in the last year may be partly due to global warming.
Impacts on health include extreme heat, malnutrition (due to increased prices and unemployment), spread of diseases like typhoid and cholera and increased pollution. Nights in particular are warming and the coldest nights are becoming less frequent. Warming nights can lead to sleeplessness and more frequent malaria as the mosquito population and its parasites thrive in warmer conditions. These impacts are expected to get worse over the twenty-first century and beyond.
The North
The most northerly regions are suffering from increased temperatures and a reduction in rainfall. There has been a 25% decrease in rain in the last 30 years. Within 25 to 45 years, the rainy season may reduce by another week. The result is further desert encroachment and loss of wetlands. Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% due to climate change and water extraction since the 1960s. Similarly, groundwater tables have dropped sharply in the last 50 years. North East and North West are the most vulnerable to climate change. Temperatures may increase by 2.5 degrees in the North East over the next 30 years and 4.5 degrees over the next 60 years. This will increase the frequency of droughts which are already a problem in this zone. Rains are expected to reduce by a further 10% by 2100.
The Sahara desert is advancing Southward at the rate of 0.6km every year covering approximately 1,400 square miles. According to some estimates, two-thirds of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states could turn to desert or semi-desert conditions in the twenty-first century (Sayne, 2011, 4). Their population is around 65 million. Government geological data show a 400% increase in sand dunes over twenty years (Sayne, 2011, 4). These have encroached whole villages and large areas of arable lands, reducing viable agricultural lands and crop yields (Elisha et al., 2017). Health impacts include increased incidence of meningitis, malaria and cholera.
This, and population growth, are the reasons that the Fulani have been moving south to search for fresh pastures as farmers also extend their cultivation areas to compensate for rising population and reducing yields.
Southern Nigeria
Temperatures, rainfall amount and variability are all expected to rise further. Storms, floods and droughts will all increase. Rising sea levels and ocean surge has submerged villages in some places in Lagos and the Niger Delta. Within 25 to 45 years, the rainy season may extend by two weeks. Heavy rain and floods are already a problem in the South and South East and are expected to get worse. Rainfall will increase most in the Niger Delta and around Calabar.
Malaria may increase; it already affects 50% of people each year and nearly half of hospital visits may be related to malaria.
Many studies have identified the Niger Delta region as highly vulnerable to impacts from climate change, stemming from sea level rise, increased precipitation, and intensive industrial activities from oil exploration. Coastal erosion and flooding are the most pervasive problems, which have caused the displacement of many settlements in some regions of the Niger Delta. Flooding caused by sea level rise is also contaminating freshwater aquifers, rivers, and stock-watering points, leaving them with high salinity and more polluted with sediment and sewage.
Further action is needed by governments in Nigeria to address the impact of climate change:
- Increased access to electricity beyond the current one in three to reduce use of firewood, charcoal and generators
- Increased public provision of safe water
- Increased public spending on education and health
- Increased planting of forests especially the Green Wall in the north
- Stop gas flaring as the largest contribution to climate change in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa
- Increased provision of public transport with electric buses to reduce pollution.
Further reading: https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Climate_Change_Nigeria.pdf
https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/68975#:~:text=Nigeria’s%20climate%20has%20been%20changing,resources%20and%20loss%20of%20biodiversity, and more generally: https://ivavalleybooks.com/product/system-change-not-climate-change
Povey is a supporter of Alliance on Surviving Covid-19 and Beyond (ASCAB) and Socialist Labour. He writes from Abuja, and could be reached via email: drewpovey@btinternet.com.
