POLITICAL feelers indicate that the next presidential election could be one of the most crucial in the 4th Republic, with the prospects to either deepen democracy or ominously throw it overboard.
The unusual bid by the ruling party to cling to power beyond 2027, and if possible, to political eternity, and the determination by those opposed to it, underpin the political intrigues and horse-trading preparatory to 2027.
Despite the political clout of Olusegun Obasanjo, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, the reality of today’s oppositional politics is that 2027 isn’t 2015. Insofar as there are disappointments and apprehensions with government, as there were in 2015, the opposition lacks a highly unifying popular leader as the opposition had in 2015.
During transitions from military to civilian democratic rule (1979, botched 1992, and 1999), none of the major parties was in a position to leverage state powers to unfairly advance its electoral fortunes, downplaying the need for electoral alliances and mergers.
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After successful transitions, elections become opaque, transforming them into the diabolical alliance of the ruling parties, the electoral agency and the judiciary, an electoral spectre driving the opposition parties into a frenetic quest for containment strategies.
The incumbent powers enjoyed by ruling parties escalate their capacity to unfairly advance their electoral interests, which underpinned the political alliance by the opposition parties in the 1st Republic, the feeble attempt in the 2nd, and the successful political merger in 2013.
A wave of electoral heists, and the interventions of state functionaries to push major opposition parties into political inertia, underscore the present drive to effectively reposition the opposition parties for the next election.
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Conflating politics and economics facilitate the spoils system perfected by the ruling parties, raising the stakes for electoral victory to a critical level. Not even in 1964 or 2015 were the stakes higher than those in the 2027 presidential election, with the ruling party gunning by all means (fair and foul) for an unstoppable 2nd term election victory.
Unfortunately for the opposition, PBAT isn’t an accidental president like Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. He is a shrewd and calculatingly difficult-to-tame executive president. Most importantly, he wouldn’t helplessly fold his political arms, and allow the APC to become a platform for spearheading political revolt against its rule, replicating the role PDP played against itself, paving the way for its defeat in 2015.
Let’s digress to a Soviet-era anecdote. In a tête-à-tête with someone on the powers of the Pope, the former powerful Secretary General of the CPSU, Joseph Stalin, sharply asked: how many military divisions did the Pope control? He controlled none, was the answer, Stalin dismissed him as inconsequential in the global power permutations of the time.
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The equivalents of Stalin’s military divisions are federal and subnational governments in Nigerian politics. Applying the Stalinist power logic to Nigeria’s electoral contests, where the countenance of the president or governor, carries more weight than those of all other political office holders at federal, or subnational levels, illustrates the immense political powers of executive office holders in Nigeria.
Whomsoever presides over any of the executive political divisions is to an extent capable of influencing the electoral behaviour (by suasion or otherwise) of those under his political jurisdiction.
There are different approaches to the electoral confrontation ahead. Some oppositionists are of the view that a new party should be the game changer, arguing that there is no difference between the APC, and the existing parties set to replace it.
A sure way for the opposition to hit the rocks and be defeated is to confront the APC disjointedly. Regionalising the opposition, as if it is only the North that’s the victim of the neoliberal policies of the regime, would leave the regime no option than to unleash the North’s abundant political black sheep, double dealers, and some of its friendly Ulama and Clergy, along with other ethnic and political chauvinists to checkmate the potency of the opposition.
Others believe that if the new party, isn’t the product of a mega political merger, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to defeat the APC in the elections.
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And yet, others feel that without a paradigmatic shift of focus from prebendal politics, it wouldn’t be politically worthwhile to replace the APC with another business as usual party.
To the change seekers resisting the replacement of APC rule, by that of any of the existing parties, since they are yet to have the party they desire, the displacement of the ruling party from power, would send an unmistakable signal, that there is no party that is too powerful for Nigerians to vote out of office, if its policy preferences diverge from those of the people.
According to Opera News (12th February 2025), 17 opposition figures: a former president (Olusegun Obasanjo); a former vice president and serial presidential candidate (Atiku Abubakar); a former governor and presidential candidate (Peter Obi); seven former governors who served as ministers (Ibrahim Shekarau, Nasir el-Rufai, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rauf Aregbesola, Rotimi Ameachi, Kayode Fayemi and Sule Lamido); four former governors (Ahmed Makarfi, Bukola Saraki, Muazu Babangida Aliyu, and Murtala Nyako); two reigning governors (Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde), and a former APC NWC member (Salihu Lukman), are set to unseat PBAT from office in 2027.
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Irrespective of the dissatisfaction of voters with the policies of government led by a politically shrewd president, his party can’t be stopped from enjoying uninterrupted two terms in office, is a political hypothesis which could be disproved by the opposition in Nigeria. But, could they disprove it in 2027?
The opposition could only effectively confront the APC in 2027 if the parties controlling the 16 oppositional subnational divisions merge into a mega party, grounded in internal party democracy. This would be impossible without subordinating the political ambitions of the leaders of the merging parties, to the broader political objectives of winning the elections, and deepening the nation’s democracy.
Despite the political clout of Olusegun Obasanjo, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, the reality of today’s oppositional politics is that 2027 isn’t 2015. Insofar as there are disappointments and apprehensions with government, as there were in 2015, the opposition lacks a highly unifying popular leader as the opposition had in 2015.
Unfortunately for the opposition, PBAT isn’t an accidental president like Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. He is a shrewd and calculatingly difficult-to-tame executive president. Most importantly, he wouldn’t helplessly fold his political arms, and allow the APC to become a platform for spearheading political revolt against its rule, replicating the role PDP played against itself, paving the way for its defeat in 2015.
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Besides the federal government, with 21 APC controlled subnational political divisions, the power equation is skewed against the opposition’s 16. And besides, the two reigning governors (Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde), and NNPP’s de facto party leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, none of the powerful opposition leaders fully controls a political division at subnational level.
A sure way for the opposition to hit the rocks and be defeated is to confront the APC disjointedly. Regionalising the opposition, as if it is only the North that’s the victim of the neoliberal policies of the regime, would leave the regime no option than to unleash the North’s abundant political black sheep, double dealers, and some of its friendly Ulama and Clergy, along with other ethnic and political chauvinists to checkmate the potency of the opposition.
The opposition could only effectively confront the APC in 2027 if the parties controlling the 16 oppositional subnational divisions merge into a mega party, grounded in internal party democracy. This would be impossible without subordinating the political ambitions of the leaders of the merging parties, to the broader political objectives of winning the elections, and deepening the nation’s democracy.
Jahun, a commentator on public affairs writes from Dutse, Jigawa State capital. He can be reached via 07039038088.
